Joe Scott 3: The Body Politic

The Troubles in Iraq

13 February 2006 |permalink | email article

Condi Rice downplays the key role played by the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr in the unexpected nomination of Ibrahim al-Jafaari to continue as Prime Minister in the next Iraq government. Jafaariís retention appears to confirm the growing strength of anti-U.S. fundamentalists within the new Iraqi Parliament.

How naÔve is Rice? Has she forgotten that the messianic Sadr led two violent uprisings against the U.S. occupation and the interim government in 2004, controls the largest bloc of seats within the Shiite alliance and recently visited Iran and Syria and is reported to have expressed solidarity with their hostility to the U.S.?

Jafaariís retention is a stunning setback for secular forces in Iraq and a fresh blow to President Bushís dream of democracy. A moderate Islamist with strong ties to Iranian leaders, he is criticized for failing since taking office in 2004 to significantly improve security in Iraq, permitting abuse and allowing death squads to the kill Sunni Arabs by the Shiite-dominated government.

The failure of the expected nominee, Adel Abdul Mahdi, a member of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution, makes power sharing with the main Kurdish and Sunni groups more difficult. This is especially the case if the alliance led by the former interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, whom the U.S. favors, is excluded from the cabinet.

Anything short of a stunning compromise, as insurgent violence continues unabated in and around Baghdad, is certain to spark anew the bitter debate on selective U.S. intelligence to justify a conclusion that the president decided to attack well before the March 2003 invasion.

Paul R. Pillar, the former CIA official who coordinated U.S. intelligence on the Middle East from 2000 until last year makes credible arguments, dismissed by Republicans as ìpre-war intelligence myths,î in the upcoming issue of the journal Foreign Affairs.

* The administration ìwent to war without requesting ñ and evidently without being influenced by ñ any strategic-level intelligence assessments on any aspect of Iraq.î
* It ìrepeatedly called on the intelligence community to uncover more material that would contribute to the case for war,î including information on the ìsupposed connectionî between Hussein and Al Qaeda, which analysts had discounted.
* Intelligence community assessments before the invasion indicated a postwar Iraq ìwould not provide a fertile ground for democracyî and would need ìa Marshall Plan-type effortî to restore its economy despite its oil revenue.
* The first request he received from a Bush policymaker for an assessment of post-invasion Iraq was ìnot until a year after the war.î
* That assessment, completed in August 2004, warned that the insurgency in Iraq could evolve into a guerilla war or a civil war. Bush, who told voters during the 2004 campaign that the mission was going well, described the assessment to reporters as ìjust guessing.î

The Kickapoo Identity

13 February 2006 |permalink | email article

When asked about Jack Abramoff on Jan. 26, President Bush replied, ìI donít know him.î But a photo of him and the disgraced lobbyist appear together in a photo on the Time Web site that is the first published image of the two together in the same room. What does it mean?

Scott McClellan says it means nothing, is one of thousands of photos the president has taken with thousands of people over the last five years and has no relevance to the Justice Department investigation of Abramoff. Still, the scandal cast a dark shadow over a weekend Republican retreat in Maryland where Bush reassured the faithful about his weak poll standing. If the GOP really cares about the appearance of a conflict in a midterm election year, it means something.

Time and the New York Times published the photo Saturday showing Bush greeting Chief Raul Garza, leader of the Kickapoo tribe in southwest Texas at the Old Executive Office Building adjacent to the White House on May 9, 2001. Abramoff is looking on from the background and, yes, Karl Rove is seen in a partial profile watching from the presidentís right shoulder.

Although it is not clear what contact Abramoff had, if any, with the president during the 20 minutes the session lasted, the picture taken by a White House photographer is revealing. It demonstrates that the lobbyist, anxious to demonstrate his political influence with Indian tribes, was able, with the aid of senior administration officials, to penetrate the innermost sanctum of government.

NYT reported that the photograph was provided to it by Chief Garza, under indictment on federal charges of embezzling money from his tribe, who said he had ìnothing to hideî in his dealings with Abramoff and the White House. His lawyer said the lobbyist arranged for the chief to attend the meeting, ostensibly for a group of state legislators supportive of Bushís 2001 tax cut plan. Also in attendance was Grover Norquist, a leading conservative tax strategist and friend of Abramoff.

While Abramoff never got the contract to represent the tribe and its lucrative casino, the ìKickapoo Identityî ñ a mere photo op or more ñ is a classic metaphor for influence peddling at the summit in Washington.

Bush: Recycling the News

10 February 2006 |permalink | email article

President Bush disclosed yesterday new details of a foiled terrorist plot to fly a highjacked jet into a Los Angeles skyscraper, the tallest building on the West Coast, and crediting international cooperation in the war on terrorism with thwarting the 2002 scheme.

His speech appeared to confuse and stun many, gave the impression that Republicans want to make national security the #1 issue in the midterm elections and caused a peevish Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to vent that the White House had not given him advance notice.

While some details are new - the planned use of a ìshoe bombî by hijackers to access the cockpit door - neither Bush nor the White House gave any real reason beyond Rovian spin for releasing details of a plot they first disclosed last October. In fact, most of what Bush said about the plot was already recycled news.

The Sunday Times (London) reported on March 28, 2004 that Osama Bin Laden ordered his operations chief, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, to prepare for an attack on Heathrow soon after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. as part of a two-pronged assault, with a cryptic reference to the Library Tower in Los Angeles.

On March 31, 2004, the Los Angeles Times confirmed that an attack on the Library Tower was planned but never carried out. ìWe were made aware of that information last spring,î said John Miller, the LAPDís top anti-terrorism official (now a rising figure in the FBI) who detailed a number of immediate measures to heighten security and implement high-rise evacuation drills after the plot was uncovered.

Miller said the Joint Terrorism Task Force first learned of Al Qaedaís aborted plans for a second wave of attacks in 2003, according to the Times story. It noted that ìtwo law enforcement sources said that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, captured in March 2003, reportedly told his interrogators that the Library Tower ñ now known as the U.S. Bank Tower ñ was targeted along with Chicagoís Sears Tower.î

It is known that L.A. public officials, including then-Councilman Villaraigosa, were privy to briefings on the Al Qaeda plot by Miller three years ago, making his rant a little disingenuous. The mayor told AP that he was amazed that the president would make an announcement on national TV without informing his office. But his office said the White House made such a disclosure on Wednesday.

Villaraigosa issued a reassuring statement updating many of the precautions detailed by Miller in 2003. But Kevin Roderick, editor of laobserved.com, was not reassured by the mayorís math that LAFD helicopters can evacuate 350 people an hour off the roof of a burning building. ìHow many hours would it take to clear a sixty-story office tower?î

The mayor did get a live shot on CNN, but so what? Bush daily plays the network like a fiddle.