Joe Scott 3: The Body Politic

Polls, W. and Iraq

21 December 2005 |permalink | email article

Polls are snapshots of a moment in time and fleeting. New data on President Bush vis-a-vis Iraq is revealing.

The good news for Bush is a Washington Post-ABC News Poll taken between last Thursday and Sunday showing his overall approval rating at 47%, up from 39%, with 52% negative. His approval on Iraq jumped 10 points to 46%. On fighting terrorism it stood at 56%, up 8 points from November.

The huge turnout in last weekís elections in Iraq, and the White House PR offensive - five speeches and a news conference in 19 days - has sharply jump started support for Bush among his core supporters. But movement among Democrats, independents and moderates has been negligible. And 60% of those sampled still say they do not believe Bush has adequately explained why the U.S. is in Iraq and about the same percentage said the administration lacks a clear plan to succeed.

In his Monday news conference, the president spoke about millions of Iraqis ìlooking forward to the future with hope and optimism.î In a televised address Sunday night he referenced an ABC News Poll conducted with Time and several news organizations just before the election indicating 7 in 10 Iraqis ìsay their lives are going well.î

The president conveniently left out key poll data about Iraqi public opinion, which indicates deep resentment with the occupation despite all the Bush-Cheney happy talk about freedom and democracy: Just 46% said their country was better off than before the war; half said it was wrong for the U.S. to invade in 2003. Two-thirds said they opposed the continued presence of U.S. troops, and almost half said they would like to see U.S. forces leave soon.

Preliminary election returns yesterday suggest a strong victory for a coalition of Iranian-backed Shiite religious parties. Sunni and secular political parties claim the national election was rigged, demand a new vote, hint at new insurgent violence and threaten to both sabotage and delay the formation of a new government.

The New York Timesí conservative columnist David Brooks correctly worries that to avoid a civil war ìit is essential that the U.S. remain in Iraq until we are sure the central government is strong.î But on this first day of winter, an omninous moment is approaching,

If the Sunni Arabs are shut out of power the U.S. occupation could end up with a pro-Iranian, theocratic government with American troops trapped in a quagmire. If so, forget the polls because Bush and his "strategy for victory" will be toast.
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Why Oversight Matters

20 December 2005 |permalink | email article

Quote of the day:

ìI do not think you can argue today that Congress is a coequal branch of government: it is not. It has basically lost the war-making power.î

Lee H. Hamilton, former Democratic congressman from Indiana and vice-chairman of the 9/11 commission.

Bush and Big Brother

19 December 2005 |permalink | email article

The New York Timesí stunning revelation that President Bush secretly authorized the National Security Agency in 2002 to conduct an electronic eavesdropping program within the United States without first obtaining warrants from a secret court that oversees intelligence matters raises a number of serious constitutional issues.

Bush defended his action, calling it ìfully consistent with my constitutional responsibilities and authoritiesî in an unusual Saturday radio address. He didnít say why he felt it necessary to assert extraordinary claims of war-making presidential power and circumvent a system under current law when he could have obtained emergency warrants from the court. Every major decision concerning his aggressive war on terror has involved key principles in rejecting the authority of the courts and Congress.

The Los Angeles Times reported that a Supreme Court decision more than 30 years ago raises questions about Bushís position, noting a special court exists that could rule over surveillance requests. The paper cited a 1972 ruling when justices unanimously rejected President Nixonís contention that he had the power to order wiretapping without a warrant to protect national security, citing the 4th Amendment and then-Justice Lewis Powell, a Nixon appointee, in delivering the court’s ruling.

In another significant Sunday story, a high-ranking intelligence official with first-hand knowledge told the Washington Post that Vice President Cheney, then-CIA Director George Tenet and NSA Director Michael Hayden, then a lieutenant general and the NSA director, briefed four key member of Congress on Oct. 25 and Nov. 14 of 2001 about the agencyís new domestic surveillance soon after Bush signed a highly classified directive that lifted some restrictions.

Administration officials made clear that Cheney was announcing a decision, not asking permission of Congress. How much legislators learned is in dispute. But former Florida Senator Bob Graham, who chaired the Senate intelligence committee, told the Post in two weekend interviews that he remembers no discussion of expanding NSA eavesdropping ñ and no mention of Bushís intent to bypass the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.

The NSA fallout affects the future of the broad antiterrorism bill known as the Patriot Act which expanded the presidentís authority and expires Dec. 31. On Friday a bipartisan Senate vote blocked the billís reauthorization, sharply elevating the debate between national security, personal privacy and civil liberty issues.

Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, who leads the Judiciary Committee, said full oversight hearings on the eavesdropping program ìwould take precedence over every other itemî except the nomination of Judge Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court.

Bushís deliberate “need to know” monitoring of U.S. citizens by a super secret agency whose duties were previously almost exclusively obtaining overseas intelligence, darkly suggests what could happen without Congressional oversight some year in America.

Remember George Orwellís novel, published in 1949, which takes place in 1984 and presents an imaginary future where a totalitarian state controls every aspect of life, even peopleís thoughts, and whose leader and dictator is Big Brother?