Joe Scott 3: The Body Politic

Antonio’s First Test

29 March 2006 |permalink | email article

As todayís front-page analysis by the Los Angeles Times’ Jim Newton points out, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosaís best moment in the wake of last Saturdayís massive pro-immigrant rally may have been to urge rebellious students to return to class.

But the telling photo of the mayor, speaking with the media, as school board member David Tokofsky whispers in his ear, is a strong metaphor of the difficulty he faces in fortifying his electoral base while not appearing to pander to ethnic politics.

Ace Smith, one of his political sidemen, calls him ìthe voice of reason.î I had a very different view after hearing him make a political statement to students at noon on Monday and then hours later urge them to go back to school. That hardly shows command presence by a charismatic and nationally ambitious politician entering his 10th month in office.

Aside from the fact that tens of thousands of downtown workers were inconvenienced for two days this week because Spring St. between Temple and First Street was shut down to deal with the student protest and the loss of millions in government aid, there is a larger issue here.

It is that Villaraigosa, who showed little interest in education politics during much of last yearís campaign, and was initially ambivalent after taking office, has now made taking control of Los Angeles schools a key centerpiece of his otherwise overcrowded political agenda.

His recent pilgrimage to see how New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg runs city schools attracted a gaggle of L.A. media. A great photo op on both coasts, it serves to raise expectations about local reform. But Villaraigosaís halting first reaction to the student walkout does not inspire confidence regardless of the spin.

A Sleeping Giant Awakes

29 March 2006 |permalink | email article

The politics of illegal immigration, reflected in last Saturdayís peaceful march by 500,000 in Los Angeles - born as an eleven-family Spanish pueblo - in reaction to a harsh Republican-passed House bill in December, has triggered a national firestorm, action in the Senate and a test of President Bushís remaining power.

On Monday, the Senate Judiciary Committee, almost certainly affected by televised images of tens of thousands of Latinos, together with union and religious demonstrators waving banners and flags, found a bipartisan compromise. It sent a more lenient bill to the full Senate that would create a temporary worker program and a process for legalizing the nationís illegal immigrants -but arguably not granting amnesty.

Late Tuesday it appeared that Republican conservatives, fearing a huge loss of the crucial Latino vote in this yearís mid-term elections, might strike a compromise which would prop up a slumping W. His major problem remains Iraq which incredibly still lacks a functioning government and is in a predictable sectarian civil war. Unfiltered news still trumps White House optimism and Rummy spin.

It is quite possible, however, that strident opponents of illegal immigration, such as Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.), egged on by conservative talk radio hosts and Lou Dobbs, CNNís pompous, one-man answer to FOX News, may cause enough commotion to force the delay of any GOP decision on the issue until next year. Too risky now?

A survey of legal immigrants by the respected Florida-based Latino pollster Sergio Bendixen, a Democrat, finds that 67% of legal immigrants from Latin America, Asia, Europe and Africa believe anti-immigrant sentiment is growing in the U.S., and 64% feel that sentiment is fueled by racism. The pollster thinks the White House is more concerned about Tancredo that the Democrats.

The immigration issue has suddenly impacted on the California gubernatorial election. In an adroit and timely response after the Los Angeles eruption, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger wrote an op-ed piece in the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday. îI am an immigrant,î he said, calling for a comprehensive new law that respects immigrants and protects the nation.

His two Democratic opponents were not as quick on the draw. LA Weekly columnist and blogger Bill Bradley quoted state Controller Steve Westlyís press secretary as opposing the House bill because ìit criminalizes undocumented workers.î

Bradley cited a transcript in which Univision reporter Pablo Espinoza asked state Treasurer Phil Angelides about the infamous HR 4437 which House GOP leaders in the last 24 hours have soured on as a realistic solution. Angelides said he didnít know about it.

While Angelides has overwhelming support among elected California Democrats my hunch is Westly may win the June primary.

Arnold’s $$$$$$ ‘Artillery Shell’

26 March 2006 |permalink | email article

Itís certain that Arnold Schwarzenegger, seeking a second term, Phil Angelides and Steve Westly, each seeking the Democratic nomination, will raise tens of millions of dollars to be competitive. The expenditures to the governor’s campaign manager is whatís raising eyebrows.

Consider the sum paid to Steve Schmidt, his new manager. Capitol Weeklyís Shane Goldmacher reported last week that in less than two months on the job Schmidt - with three $26,250 paychecks - is on a pace to earn more than $470,000 during the governorís race. A source close to the campaign said there was ìa signing bonus componentî to the salary figures ñ a practice not unprecedented but said by operatives in both parties to be uncommon in California.

Like Schwarzenegger, state Treasurer Angelides and Controller Westly are serious multimillionaires. But the sums theyíve paid to their campaign managers marks each so far as cheapskates. By contrast, the governor has spent over $14 million on campaign consultants since 2003.

Cathy Calfo, Angelidesí campaign manager has received more than $215,000 in payments stince she joined the campaign dating back to September 2004. Jude Barry, managing Westly, with the campaign since April 2005, has been paid $60,000, with another $10,000 going to his consulting firm.

Is Schmidt, 35, worth it? His resume suggests that the Californian is a budding GOP star ñ player in the 2004 Bush re-election campaign; senior media adviser to Dick Cheney; overseer of the nominations of Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Samuel Alito; and with close ties to Karl Rove.

Schmidt, who ran Republican Matt Fongís unsuccessful 1998 U.S. Senate campaign, insists his issues are policy and issues. But a talent for uncanny media spin and rapid response, which prompted Newsweek to call him a political ìartillery shell,î appealed to the macho Schwarzenegger.

Regardless of who wins the June primary, Angelides and Westly each has tested media operatives quite capable of engaging Schmidt whose candidate remains highly unpopular in current polls. Donnybrook best describes the general election.