Arnold in Harm’s Way

08 September 2005 |permalink | email article

Arnold Schwarzenegger, a seven-time former Mr. Olympia, compares the hugely unpopular Nov. 8 special election he’s called to an athletic contest.

He may find that it is more like a brutal California political equivalent of the Tour de France—tough and uphill.

Undaunted, the supremely confident governor has virtually declared he’ll announce his candidacy for a another term next year to coincide with the Set. 16-18 GOP state convention in Anaheim.

That news will fire up his GOP base, reassure nervous major corporate donors about his commitment to run again and give fresh propaganda for his well-paid TV consultants to spin.

But the former bodybuilder/actor now faces several serious political problems as fall approaches which will help define his legacy.

1.  A new Field Poll shows that his approval rating has slipped to an all-time low of 36 percent.

2.  Barely more than one in three state voters would re-elect him if he decides to run. Just seven months ago, 56 percent of voters supported his re-election and just 42 percent opposed it. His support has now shrunk almost exclusively to his GOP base.

3.  The governor’s spending control initiative is struggling. If Proposition 76 fails, he’s on record that as a last resort he might be forced to raise taxes. This could be his Achilles heel. He was elected in the recall campaign on a no-new tax platform, and has since said that a tax increase would harm the economy.

His threat about a possible hike may solidify support among conservative voters, especially Republicans. But he needs Democrats and independents to win. A tax hike has never been in any GOP play book, and the mere suggestion has sent movement conservatives into convulsions.

Ken Khachigian, a former Reagan strategist and prominent GOP consultant, said Schwarzenegger needs to retract his statement. “I don’t think he wants it left out there…even as a last resort.” Don’t bet the ranch!

4.  The California Legislature has approved gay marriage and sent it to the already beleaguered governor. Schwarzenegger has not taken an official position on the legislation, passed by the narrowest of margins in the Assembly, but has hinted that he would veto it.

There is no doubt that he will do so, furthering cementing his core GOP vote. Again, as with his falling favorability, he runs the risk of losing majority Democrats who voted for him in the 2003 recall election and whose support is crucial for his political survival.

Bruce Cain, the sage UC Berkeley political scientist, has opined that the governor has to hope that “anger in the gay community doesn’t spill over into other groups.” That is the nightmare his handlers fear the most.

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