California and the Clintons

02 November 2007 |permalink | email article

A new Field Poll offers sharp political contrasts between Hillary Clinton, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, and former President Bill Clinton in the nation’s most populist state with the most electoral votes.

Overall, 70% of Californians have made up their mind about how they would vote if she’s the nominee: a third of the Democratic leaning state’s voters have decided they definitely would vote for her while another third have decided they wouldn’t vote for her for president.

Taken Oct. 11-21, before this week’s debate in which she bombed, the poll reflected many of Clinton’s strengths, including the effect of Bill Clinton on the race. But it also underscored what some Democrats believe is a troubling part of her White House bid – the intensity of feeling pro and con that her campaign appears to incite.

The survey, Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said, showed “there’s really been a solidification of voter opinions on Hillary” and what he called a “negative drag” unique in the presidential race – the solid third who don’t like her, won’t support her and see her negatively.

That means Clinton, in order to carry the state, has “a more limited playing field than other candidates would have,” DiCamillo said. “No other candidates have this kind of solidification of negative voters.

Three months before the Feb. 5 California primary, Clinton has a 25% lead over her nearest competitor, Barack Obama, but it remains unclear how this new data could impact on dramatically tightening the race.

One of the big positives for her is that state voters strongly believe the former president should play an active role in her campaign and that he would be an asset in a Hillary Clinton administration.

C42 is more positively viewed than his wife in the state – with a 56% to 37% favorable-unfavorable rating

The poll is certain to revive talk about the “buy two, get one free” Clintonian theory of politics, a virtual co-presidency and another White House dynasty – all phrases which confuse her quest to become the first woman president, the gender card aside.

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