Can Demographic Shifts Save Obama?

13 December 2011 |permalink | email article

The 2008 election is a reminder that such shifts are changing America and potentially the political balance in the country. The most diverse electorate in the nation’s history, as the Washington Post’s Dan Balz wrote, pushed President Obama to victory. “He will need the assistance of those shifts even more in 2012 if he is to avoid defeat. Part of Obama’s success was due to the excitement his candidacy generated among these groups four years ago, but part too owed simply to the realities of a nation changing in ways that are favorable to Democrats.” Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin, two analysts from the Progressive Center for American Progress have provided the most comprehensive analysis yet of how these factors could affect the vote in 2012. Their study examines whether the electorate will be shaped more by demographic changes coursing through the population, or Republican enthusiasm to defeat Obama coupled with apathy of voters hard hit by the economy and unhappy with Obama’s leadership. The analysts estimate that the percentage of minorities is likely to be larger in 2012—a key advantage for the president—suggesting that minorities will account fffor at least two points more than 2008. The question is whether Obama can keep his roughly 80 percent support among minorities. The two analysts calculate that even if there is a drop-off of support among minority voters, Obama could still win reelection as easily as he did in 2008 so long as his deficits among white voters are the same as they were four years ago. The analysts calculate that if Obama lost white working-class and white college graduates by the same amount as John Kerry lost them in 2004, he could still win the popular vote by about 50 to 48 percent. The good news for Obama is that voters in this millennial generation, born between 1978 and 2000, have grown by 4 million since the last election and made up about 20 percent of the electorate in 2008 when Obama won younger voters by about 2 to 1. Unmarried women backed Obama by an even bigger margin than younger voters in 2008. Thanks to demographic changes in the country Obama has a cushion. Will it be enough to overcome the dissatisfaction with his presidency?

What They Said

“After the debate was over Ann came up and gave me a kiss and said I was great and she said there are a lot of things you do well, betting isn’t one of them.”—Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.

“In a town where every macho operative fancies himself the next Michael Clayton, Jim Messina—President Obama’s campaign manager—stakes a legitimate claim as D.C.’s alpha fixer.”—Politico’s Glenn Thrush, in reference to the acclaimed 2007 film starring George Clooney.

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