Can Rove Save GOP Majority?

26 April 2006 |permalink | email article

Karl Rove has been relieved of his responsibilities for White House domestic policy but keeps the title. George W. Bushís ìbrainî is now the indispensable force in plotting Republican political strategies ahead of the November midterm elections.

But yesterday Rove testified for three hours before a federal grand jury investigating the 2003 leak of a CIA operativeís identity, appearing voluntarily at the request of the chief federal prosecutor. His appearance marked the fifth time he has appeared to testify. U.S. Attorney Patrick J. Fitzgerald advised his attorney that he was ìnot a target of the investigation,î but added no decision has been made about charges. 

Should Rove be indicted, and given the free fall in Bushís approval ratings, it would be a potentially fatal blow to GOP hopes of retaining their majority in the wake of damaging new poll data. 

A national survey by the Pew Research Center of 1,501 Americans this month suggests voters are mad as hell with Congress, with independents heavily leaning Democratic and, with Bush fatigue, signs Republican candidates may bear the brunt of public disillusionment.

A strong appetite for change in Washington has two thrusts: 1) a majority of voters would like to see most members of Congress defeated, and 2) a sizable minority want their representative turned out in the midterms.

Both indicators reflect anti-incumbent sentiment not seen since late in the historic 1994 campaign, just before Republicans gained control of Congress. The Democratsí current 10-point lead is only one of a handful of occasions since 1994 when either party has held such a sizeable advantage in the congressional horse race.

The Democratic candidate is favored over the Republican by 17% among white, non-Hispanic Catholics, by 8% among white mainline Protestants, and by 12% among voters in the Midwest.

The Democratic candidate is tied with the Republicans among other groups that the Democrats lost in recent elections, including whites, men and Sourthners.The Democrats have wide leads in the West (23%) and Northeast (19%); in February 2002, the GOP held a slight advantage in both regions.

Whatís most impressive throughout the 15-page Pew report is the crucial swing role of independent voters. Half of them (51%) favor the Democratic candidate in the district compared with just 31% who say they will vote Republican. More than in any recent election, far more independents (62%) say the issue of who controls Congress will be a factor in their vote this fall.

Especially worrisome for Republicans is the current 20-point Democrat lead among independents. Four years ago, the Democratic and Republican candidates were essentially tied among independents (42% R, 39% D).

Assuming he is not charged Rove’s greatest challenge will be to offset the strong desire expressed by the public for policies and programs that are different from the current administration. The survey is the most negative evaluation of Congressís record since 1997.

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