Democrats, declines up, GOP down

07 February 2010 |permalink | email article

Secretary of State Debra Bowen’s office reported Friday that since an equivalent pre-2006 gubernatorial primary report both Democratic and decline-to-state registrations have increased while Republican numbers have declined.

While the news is especially good for long dominant Democrats the real story is the dramatic rise of decline-to-state which has grown from 18.8 percent of the state’s total registered voters to 20.18 percent – an all-time high for California and more than twice what it was 20 years ago.

Democratic gains have increased from 42.7 percent from the same period in 2006 to 44.6 percent, probably helped by the 2008 presidential campaign, while Republican registrations have plummeted from 34.7 percent to an ominous 30.8 percent.

The rise in registrations bodes well for former two-term Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown, 71, now state attorney general, who has yet to declare his expected third term candidacy. 

But the joker in the deck relative to the general election could turn in large part on how the decline-to-state vote views the outcome of the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Billionaire former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, 53, is far ahead of multimillionaire state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner in what has become a bitterly contested primary. If businesswoman Whitman, who’s initially stumbled and alienated the media, wins her war chest could be a key in wooing angry and disaffected independent voters. But she could also emerge, Democrats hope, as a weakened candidate.

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