Clinton-Obama: Lead Shrinks

20 December 2007 |permalink | email article

California voters in the Big Enchilada primary on Feb. 5 are being influenced by tightening races in the crucial states of Iowa and New Hampshire just after New Year’s Day.

The new California Field Poll shows that Hillary Clinton’s big 25-point lead over Barack Obama has shrunk by nearly half since October, although Democratic voters still believe by 3-1 she has the best chance of winning the presidency.

While Clinton has a 14% lead, one in 5 Democrats is undecided – a number that has nearly doubled since early last year.

Both candidates have high favorable ratings among Democrats, but Clinton leads 2-1 among women and Latinos while Obama has a far more positive image among independents – a rapidly increasing group – and African American voters.

One stunning finding is that Obama gets far more crossover from Republicans – 47% say they would consider supporting him – than would support Clinton.

“That suggests that Obama might stand a better chance” in a general election, said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. But he cautioned that the expressed support might not hold in a general election.

I believe, given a weaker field of current Republican candidates, it is possible that if Obama is the Democratic nominee and the Republicans select anybody but big long shot John McCain, large numbers of independents and GOP moderates could back the current underdog.

John Edwards’ support remains stable but if he fares poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, second choice preferences among his supporters show Edwards’ voters “would be more inclined to support Obama than Clinton, which could make the race in California much closer,” the survey found.

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