Filibuster Compromise: Can It Hold?

25 May 2005 |permalink | email article

A group of 14 centrist senators Monday evening, in an unexpected deal that cut across ideological and political lines, signed a compromise that defused the threat of a “nuclear option” that would have rewritten the Senate’s 214-year-old filibuster rule. In doing so, they gave President Bush a modest victory by expressly giving three of his judicial nominees an up-or-down vote by the Senate, assuring their confirmations, while keeping open their votes on two others.

The fragile compromise, cobbled together in the office of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), was hailed by the centrists as in the Senate’s best traditions. Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va), invoked the name of Benjamin Franklin in suggesting that the group had saved the republic. Well, not quite.

My question is how long this bipartisan coalition will hold the center. I mean, this is a classic splt-the-baby compromise, And, despite all the victory laps, the deal has drawn strong criticism from both the left and right, with no indication that the pact will end the bitter battle.

Ross K. Baker, a Rutgers University professor and longtime student of the Senate, told The Washington Post that “they kicked the can down the road. They basically postponed a crisis and set up a predicate for another one in the future on the Supreme Court nomination.”

What especially angers me about the compromise is this:  Did, in fact, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), have the needed votes to bring about the rules change that he threatened with the nuclear option. Suppose the “Gang of 14” had called his bluff on the Senate floor? 

While partisans on both sides claimed victory in the pact, the reactions were cutting on both sides.

Nan Aron, president of the liberal Alliance for Justice, told The New York Times after the compromise was reached, that “we are very disappointed with the decision to move these extremist nominees closer to confirmation.” She was referring three circuit judges, Priscilla Owen of Texas -  expected to be confirmed today - and Janice Rogers Brown of California and William Pryor Jr. of Alabama whose confirmations appear certain. All three jurists have long been targets of intense Democratic opposition.  Expecting no compromise, Aron’s group paid $250-grand Monday night to run a 90-second ad in which Harry Reid, the minority leader, talked about “a crisis unfolding here in the Capitol.”

On the right, reaction to the compromise was far more extreme. McCain was a very popular target. Dr. James Dobson, the nation’s most influential evangelical leader, called the deal “a great bailout and betrayal by a cabal of Republicans and a great victory for united Democrats.”

In the wake of the issue over Circuit Court nominations, the battle for the Supreme Court is looming. The issue was dramatically illustrated when the ailing, but still working, 80-year-old Chief Justice William Rehnquist, battling thyroid cancer, was seen being wheeled into a Capitol physicians’ office on Monday. The sighting again raised speculation that he might retire at the end of the court term next month.

Both sides are bracing for battle.

Frist has not ruled out reviving the nuclear option; Sen. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio), who signed the agreement, said if the agreement breaks down he and others may support the option; and Richard Viguerie, the pioneer king of conservative direct mail said, “we are just waiting to pull the trigger.”  Democratic signers of the pact, as individuals, are reserving the right to filibuster future judicial nominees “under extraordinary circumstances.” Memorize that phrase because the Democrats are prepared to use it.

As for W43, his oft-stated demand that all his nominees get a vote did not materialize, and the possibly that united Democrats could block his eventual nominee as Chief Justice is quite possible. He will not have such a blank check in selecting a nominee. He will be under more pressure to work with moderates or face a partial rebellion. And he will need to contend with mediocre poll numbers and the reality that his signature domestic policy issue, Social Security, is in trouble.

I strongly fault Democratic compromisers and the leadership for caving in on extremist judges like Owen, Brown and Pryor. But I admire the courage of Sen. John Warner (R-Va.), in brushing aside a strong conservative backlash with Truman’s quote: “If you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen.”

In politics, courage matters!

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