GOP Dark Horse: None of the Above

11 December 2011 |permalink | email article

Nate Silver’s Political Calculus in the New York Times last week speculated “that there is a small but nontrivial chance that the Republican presidential nominee could be someone like Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty or Chris Christie. The motive: Republicans are dangerously close to having none of their candidates be acceptable to both rank-and-file voters and the party establishment. If Newt Gingrich wins Iowa, wins New Hampshire or finishes second, and wins South Carolina, wins Florida and holds on to win the GOP nomination he still might not be an acceptable choice for much of the party establishment. Silver outlines the odds of a dark-horse candidate or brokered convention: 1a. Gingrich leads the delegate count but has no more than 50 percent of the delegates; 1b. Gingrich gets more than 50 percent but has a campaign gaffe or scandal; 2a.Romney performs so poorly he is no longer viable; 2b. Romney is viable but his poor ratings rise to the point that he no longer is a consensus choice; 3. A factional candidate like Ron Paul holds 10 to 15 percent of the delegates. “All of these conditions seem plausible based on what we know right now, which is what leads me to believe that a brokered convention is plausible as well.”

GOP’s Death Wish?

Kathleen Parker, The Washington Post’s savvy conservative columnist, makes a compelling argument about why the front-running Newt Gingrich may never become president. But no one other than Callista Gingrich thinks her husband can prevail in a general election. The consensus on Gingrich is so overwhelming that conventional wisdom has taken a holiday. Instead of rallying to support him, formerly colleagues are going out of their way to politely say, “He can’t lead.” Gingrich’s record of leadership is demonstrably erratic. She cites may examples: ethics violations when he was speaker of the House; calling Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan “right-wing social engineering; and accepting $1.6 million in consulting fees from Freddie Mac to persuade conservatives not to dismantle mortgage company even, even as he called people who supported Freddie criminals. Thanks to poor management, Gingrich has been playing catch-up in Iowa. By comparison, Mitt Romney’s campaign is a seamless, debt-fee marvel of spread sheets and bottom lines. While not diminishing Gingrich’s many good qualities Parker administers a coup de grace: “But when a man who intends to lead the country cannot marshal the loyalty of those he has attempted to lead before, voters might pay heed. Then again, if Republicans want to make Democrats happy, Gingrich is their man.”

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