GOP: Dreams About 2010

12 November 2008 |permalink | email article

Hours after the Obama’s historic presidential victory and expanded Democratic congressional majorities Republican leaders and activists began searching for a new way forward.

The coming battle will be between loyalists pushing for a purer form of conservative ideology and those who want a less dogmatic and flexible middle ground.

While the chatter about who will challenge Obama in 2012 begins at the Republican Governor’s Association meeting some of the militant hopefuls dream that president-elect Obama will overreach and cite what happened to Bill Clinton in 1994.

With no real experience in working with the House or Senate Clinton made mistakes in his first two years. Obama, in contrast, has significant knowledge of the legislative process and legions of allies within the Democratic caucus.

With the political realignment of Southern states in 1994, which started with Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, a Republican breakthrough finally occurred at the Congressional level. The trends are changing now, with moderate Republicans in blue states being replaced by Democrats. The Clinton White House was outfoxed in 1994 by Newt Gingrich, who became Speaker the next year. But a replay is unlikely again in 2010 with the awesome Obama operation at the ready.

As Marc Ambinder notes, Clinton was elected in 1992 with 43% of the vote. Obama’s share of the popular vote in 53%, a clear majority. “Psychologically, this matters a great deal to both sides and the media.”

Footnote: Unlike Clinton, Obama is moving at flank speed to put his senior staff in place, with most Cabinet members likely selected around Thanksgiving.

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