GOP Voters Like 2008: Immigrant Concerns

30 October 2011 |permalink | email article

An analysis of tens of thousands of Gallup tracking-poll interviews concludes that the Republican primary electorate that will choose the party’s 2012 presidential nomination closely resembles the GOP’s voter base in 2008. Gallup trends in the new cycle suggest the primaries portend an increase in both the youngest and oldest participants and a rise in the share of conservative voters – but not a major change in the composition of people who identify as Republicans.

The Republican coalition today, as in 2008, is tilted towards men. Four years ago, men constituted 52 percent of self-identified Republicans and women made up 48 percent – little different from three years ago and preponderantly white. What’s most interesting about the polling data is that some Republicans in Congress, aware that Hispanics’ representation in the GOP has risen from 6.6 percent to just 7.2 percent, are making baby steps to refine the party’s anti-immigration image even as it doubles down on border security concerns.

Some leading Republicans, as the New York Times noted, are concerned that hostility to Hispanics is doing significant political damage and causing economic disruption. One new freshman from Alabama said as “your congressman on the House floor, I will do everything short of shooting them.” Rep. Tim Griffin of Arkansas, tough on border control, supports helping Hispanic science and math professionals get legal residence.  But even ambitious Florida Sen. Mario Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants – not exiles – supports a visa program for some highly skilled workers and a limited one for agricultural workers and students who came into the country illegally as children. But the sad reality is the Party of No will never change.

What they said

Retired Justice John Paul Steven’s new memoir is full of compelling insights: one includes a focus on major 5-to-4 rulings to explain why, if someone with Thurgood Marshall-like views had joined the court, it would not have struck down federal gun control rules, or found that the Second Amendment protects a person’s right to keep a handgun at home.

“I don’t consider making fun of something being a mistake. The president is the president, and that’s a fact.” – Rick Perry, insisting that he did not make a mistake in saying that President Obama was born in the United States, birther-like comments which drew wide scorn from establishment Republicans and analysts who said it distracted from his message.


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