Governor’s Race: Tie-Breaker Time

04 June 2006 |permalink | email article

After a more than $60 million media spending spree, the toxic Democratic primary between Steve Westly and Phil Angelides is a statistical dead heat. So tomorrow’s election will turn on which way a record 26% of undecideds vote, setting up a playoff with rebounding Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in November.

In the Field Poll’s 60-year history, there has never been as large a proportion of voters undecided so close to the election in a top-of-the-ticket major party primary. Field results, released Friday, are virtually identical to polls by the California Public Policy Institute, released May 25, and the Los Angeles Times last Sunday – with the same approximate margins of error.

Signals are mixed about why neither candidate has pulled ahead. The same old pundits assert there is no breakout issue; voter fatigue and, most emphatically, the intensely negative tone of the television advertising campaign. Each side has accused the other of a first launch. Angelides, however, has long had an aggressive history of attack ads.

[Veteran L.A. Times Capitol columnist George Skelton recalled last week that in 1994 former Senate leader David Roberti, opposing Angelides in the Democratic primary for treasurer, “was the victim of one of the sleaziest TV ads ever in California politics – sinking below negative into ugly.” The Sacramento land developer won the primary but lost the general election.]

Angelides leads among liberals, the party establishment and organized labor; Westly is ahead among moderates and conservatives.. The Times backs Angelides, while the San Francisco Chronicle, Sacramento Bee, and Los Angeles Daily News are among dailies supporting Westly.

Field found a statistical tie among female voters, who outnumber males but with more undecided, and Westly ahead among males, voters (18-39,) (40-49) and 65 and older. Angelides wins the 50-64 age group. Statistical ties extend to race and ethnicity.

On handling issues, the Times found Angelides ahead on public education, but Westly winning on the economy, the budget and environmental issues. As to which candidate would have the better chance of ousting Schwarzenegger, Westly prevailed, as in the Field poll.

Field tested pairings between Schwarzenegger versus the two Democrats among likely general election voters and the results are revealing. The governor holds a 2% lead over Westly, within the margin of error; Angelides trails the governor by 7%.

Westly’s image among such voters is 30%-24% favorable overall, and 42%-17% favorable among Democrats; Angelides’ favorable is 27% -34% unfavorable overall, but 39%-22% favorable with Democrats. 

Likely independent voters offer yet another perspective about the November election. Again, Westly’s favorable to unfavorable (28% to 18%), beats Angelides whose unfavorable (33%) surpasses his favorable (24%).

Schwarzenegger’s image has improved since February. Then, his unfavorable rating was 49% to 44%. Among all voters now it’s a tie (46%-46%). No real change among negative Democrats (69%) and static among positive Republicans (73%).

Independents may well be the key to whether the governor is reelected. He holds a slim lead against both Democrats, ahead of Westly by two points and eight points against Angelides. This is a bad omen for Angelides who has cast himself as the “anti-Arnold” candidate, and excoriated Westly as “Arnold light.”

Field surveyed 501 likely Democratic primary voters between May 23-31. Angelides led Westly by 3 points among voters who cast absentee ballots or said they intend to do so. Those who said they will go to polling places Tuesday had Westly ahead by four points.

By almost every comparative indicator, Westly emerges as the putative favorite. With turnout projected at just 38%, the field vote, not absentees, could decide the winner..

Key factors:  a) independents, who can vote in the elections this year, b) women, and c) whether Democratic activists and labor unions can mount a late GOTV blitz to push Angelides over the top. 


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