House battleground polls: Dems not dead yet

17 October 2010 |permalink | email article

Results of a final poll conducted by the bipartisan team of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies which should get the attention of analysts and partisans before closing the final chapter of Campaign 2010.

1. Republicans are now poised to lose a fair number of their ten House battleground seats, where the Republican vote lead has been cut in half since the June NPR battleground poll. If Democrats win 5 seats here, the odds change.

2. In the 58 Democratic districts polled in both June and October, Democrats are making grudging gains. The Republican lead has dropped from 8 points to 3 points, and the Democratic vote is up from 41 to 44. The Republican lead has dropped from 8 points to 3 points, and the Democratic vote is up from 41 to 44 cent. While these are small, they belie a Republican trend and could impact control – particularly if there is further movement.

3. Independents are most closely contested. The Republicans now have a 13 point lead among independents – down from a 21 point margin in June. The same trend was apparent in last week’s Democracy Corps poll.

Quotable

“After watching the Nevada debate, this country should hope that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas…For the last several weeks, the contest between Angle and Reid has been stagnant. The polls have been tied. The candidates have been playing to the same scripts. Despite the tons of ads on television, visits from bill names like Bill Clinton, and outrage over gaffes, it has felt arid and unmoving. In the casinos in Nevada when this happens, they pump in oxygen. This debate did not do that for this race.” – John Dickerson, Slate’s chief political correspondent, noting Reid, answering to a question about the Bush tax cuts, said he’d consult experts. Sharron Angle was not much better. “Man up, Harry Reid. You need to understand we have a problem with Social Security.” How embarrassing! 

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