Incredible Shrinking Man

29 August 2005 |permalink | email article

The short happy political life of Arnold Schwarzenegger is now less happy.

When the gubernatorial candidate visited the California State Fair during the 2003 recall campaign, the action star was mobbed by fans, autograph seekers and reporters. This summer, Schwarzenegger teamed up with Danny DeVito, his co-star in the hit film “Twins,” in a TV ad to promote the fair.

But the governor’s return trip last week saw the public and press kept more at bay. He was greeted with a smattering of applause and media questions about his fundraising, a power blackout in Los Angeles (shades of Gray Davis, his ill-fated predecessor) and months of plunging poll numbers.

Once viewed as an outsider capable of solving the state’s problems, a new poll suggests that voters now see him more as part of the political process in Sacramento and less in sync with issues the public cares about - notably public education - as the post-Labor Day campaign nears.

The San Francisco-based nonpartisan Public Policy Institute survey (Aug 8-15) shows that Californians strongly disapprove of his performance in office, reject his call for a special election Nov. 8, and oppose two of the three initiatives that he and his allies have placed on the ballot.

What’s compelling is that Californians tend to agree with the governor’s assessment of the state’s problems, and in some cases even agree in concept with the proposals he’s made. But here’s the rub: As to how they intend to vote on his ballot measures, they turn against him, led mainly by a Democratic electorate which views him strongly in partisan terms.

Proposition 77 would redraw political boundaries by a panel of judges instead of the Legislature. Voters favored the concept but when asked how they would vote, opposed it 46 percent to 34 percent.

Proposition 74, a waiting period for teacher tenure, attracts three-fourths of likely voters, but only 49 percent say they support making it easier to dismiss teachers for poor performance.

Ironically, the one proposal on the ballot that has a 58 percent majority lead - which Republicans support but which the governor has yet to endorse - is Proposition 75 . That measure, bitterly opposed by Democratic lawmakers, would make it more difficult for public employee unions, who have been in the vanguard of politically attacking the governor this year, to raise campaign money from their members’ dues.

I asked Mark Baldassare, the poll’s director, about Proposition 75, even narrowly leading among Democrats, 46 percent to 42 percent.  “The question is whether that margin will hold up with other initiatives with heavy Democratic backing far closer.” My guess is it won’t.

Given his past penchant for bombast - kicking nurses’ butts, calling Democrats “girlie men,” or describing what he likes as “fantastic” - I queried Baldassare about whether the finding that just 34 percent of Californians approve his performance as governor might have something to do with his grating personality - a question previous statewide polls have not probed. “I’m writing this down,” he said.

Schwarzenegger appears unfazed by three ballot measures he supports not getting majority support, including Proposition 76. It limits state spending and changes school funding requirements.

He attacks special interests for spending millions in TV ads to attack him, but doesn’t mention the tens of millions from business interests he’ll air to stay alive and run again in ‘06. But it’s the prospect of a special election blowout, despite the governor’s optimism, which many GOP high moguls fear.

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