Iowa: Mitt Edge, Rick Closing

03 January 2012 |permalink | email article

GALLUP notes that this is the most volatile Republican nomination contest since pollsters started tracking front-runners decades ago. It’s the first such contest since 1964 when the party had so many candidates in serious contention for the nomination—in 1963 and 1964. Nelson Rockefeller, Richard Nixon, Henry Cabot Lodge and William Scranton were all favorites at some point before Barry Goldwater won, and Republicans painfully remember the train wreck. In tonight’s Iowa caucuses Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and fast closing Rick Santorum are closely bunched. Romney is a slim favorite, Santorum possibly edging Paul, and a virtual three-way tie at the wire. Nate Silver’s New York Times forecast model, combined with other recent models in the Hawkeye state, suggest each of the frontrunners could win: Chance of winning the Iowa caucus: Romney (38%), Paul (34%) and Santorum (24). Silver notes that as many as 40 percent of voters decide in the closing moments of a campaign. One sidebar: Romney performed slightly worse in Public Policy Polling conducted Sunday, receiving 18 percent of the vote to the 21 percent he received on Saturday. Romney’s campaign now considers Santorum a very serious threat. Newt Gingrich now turns to New Hampshire and South Carolina for a comeback, as does Rick Perry in the Palmetto state, while Michele Bachmann hopes to be competitive in both states. Jon Huntsman, who skipped Iowa, is putting in all on the line in New Hampshire.

What They Said

Iowa voters tell the New York Times’ Mark Leibovich it’s time to settle: “Jesus Christ is not running.”

“I do have my ducks in line if I decide to run, but I’d love to see the Republicans pick somebody that was going to win and take this country over.”—Donald Trump, on deck, if the GOP selects the wrong candidate,

Keith Olbermann leaves MSNBC and goes to Current TV, is never heard from again.—No. 24 in what New Yorkers talked about in 2011.—New York Times.

“The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.”—John Maynard Keynes in 1937, even as FDR was about to prove him right by trying to balance the budget too soon, sending the United States economy into a severe recession.”—Paul Krugman, echoing history.

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