Medicare Challenge in House Race

11 May 2011 |permalink | email article

A major House race is suddenly developing in a special election for a House seat in the suburbs of Buffalo. Republicans vastly out number Democrats, and the Republican candidate, Jane L. Corwin, a state assemblywoman, seemed to have it wrapped up.

But then GOP Rep. Paul Ryan released a plan calling for the most extreme overhaul of
Medicare since it was created. The dynamics suddenly changed after a barrage against the Ryan proposal pushed by the Democratic candidate, Kathy Hochul, even as her opponent remained supportive of the plan. Corwin’s lead is now within the margin of error. Hochul, the clerk for Erie County which includes Buffalo, is pushing hard to force Corwin and Tea Party favorite Jack Davis to reject the plan.

The May 24 special election has now shaped up as the first election test for the Republican agenda – and one of the likely themes next year to determine control the House in a district where a majority of registered voters are 45 or older. Even though the conservative district shows more than 30,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats the intense reaction to the collapsing Ryan plan may play a pivotal role in the outcome.   
Quotable

In particular, Mr. Gingrich is a devotee of the historian Arnold J. Toynbee, who meditated on the concept of ”departure and return” – the idea that great leaders have to leave (or be banished from) their kingdoms before they can better themselves and return as conquering heroes. One of Newt’s heroes, the French general and statesman Charles De Gaulle, embodies just this kind of romantic narrative, having spent 12 years out of power before returning to lead his country. So does Ronald Reagan, who traveled the country after losing his bid for the Republican nomination in 1976, then came roaring back to win it all four years later. – Matt Bai, in The New York Times, suggesting that if Gingrich is looking for hopeful historical comparisons, the more apt one might be Richard Nixon, all but exiled after publicly self-destructing in 1962, retreating to the sidelines and watched as his party disintegrated with a vacuum of leadership and gravitas on the right that enabled Nixon to make one the greatest comebacks in political history.

In a key development Senate Republicans have “decided to avoid jeopardizing their chances of capturing the upper chamber in next year’s elections and will not echo the House GOP’s call for a major overhaul of Medicare.” – The Hill’s Alexander Bolton

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