Mid-Terms: Obama As Reagan

12 August 2010 |permalink | email article

Much has been made in the media that Ronald Reagan was far and away the most popular of any American president since World War II. But FAIR (Fairness and Accurate in Reporting) noted in March/April 1989 that in Gallup polls taken a various points during his presidency he rated lower than other presidents during comparable periods during their terms in office. 

During the first two years of Reagan’s presidency, the public was giving President Reagan the lowest level of all modern elected presidents. His approval rating at the end of his second year in office, after the mid-term elections, was 41 percent.

Charles Franklin, at Pollster.com in an analysis last December noted the similarity of circumstances between Reagan then and President Obama now. Both replaced deeply unpopular predecessors. Both enjoyed significant gains for their party in both houses of Congress. Both faced “worse since the depression” economic circumstances. And each in his own very different ways attempted to reshape government in the early months in office.

The similarity of approval trajectories is striking for both Reagan and Obama. Reagan started lower, but since the 3rd month in office the two have moved along quite similar paths.

“Whether Obama continues to look like Reagan, “Franklin opined, “seems more likely to be driven by the same force – the economy “ While health care reform and Afghanistan will surely play a role in the public’s view of Obama, he said, the economy remains the most crucial driver of opinion.

Franklin’s analysis was that if there was an upturn in the GDP and a small down-tick in unemployment the early quarters of 2010 might mean further improvement, and the Democrats might avoid the terrible conjunction of the midterm and economic bottom which cost the GOP 26 seats in the 1982 House elections. “There are no guarantees of this and the parallels remain quite striking.” In fact, Obama faces the same daunting challenge that confronted Reagan in 1982.

New polls released Wednesday confirm his problem. Only Pew Research has Obama’s approval spread at +6. NBC News/Wall St., Gallup and Rasmussen Reports show disapproval spreads of +1; +3: and +13. Still, the election is 82 days away.

 

 

 

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