No Debate Winner: Romney Rising

27 January 2012 |permalink | email article

THE last Republican debate in Jacksonville, Fla. before Tuesday’s primary on CNN produced no knockout. Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney tangled on Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac investments but the former Massachusetts governor won the applause game, relentlessly pushing Newt for the first time. Gingrich seemed tired and more subdued than in the past. Unlike his previous success in intimidating media moderators Wolf Blitzer was having none of it. The Drudge Report concluded that if the Gingrich insurgency is for real, the conservative establishment and media need to come clean about what they know about him before it gets too late. There was a devastating takedown in the National Review by Elliot Abrams that Gingrich had a long record of criticizing Ronald Reagan whom he has long claimed as his role model; The American Spectator suggested that he is “William Jefferson Clinton;” Bob Dole reminded of Gingrich ’s ethics problems and that it is time to take a stand and stop him; Conservative columnist Ann Coulter’s warning: “Re-elect Obama, Vote Newt.” A “super PAC” backing Romney is running ads that echo many of the charges that mock Gingrich’s claim that he is the logical successor to Reagan, and suggest on leadership and character “Gingrich is no Ronald Reagan.” The next pincer movement will be to pressure former governors Jeb Bush of Florida, Haley Barbour of Mississippi, as well as Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, to build a firewall around Romney—a blitzkrieg to deny Virginia Fats the nomination. 

Polls

New NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey in terms of positive or negative approval ratings: Obama—P/50; N39; Romney—P/31, N36; Gingrich—P26;N48…. Three new polls in Florida show Mitt Romney back in the lead by 7 to a points, and margins of 39 to 40 percent—with Gingrich behind at 31 to 32 percent….Nate Silver’s Five Thirty-Eight political calculus in the New York Times suggests that Gingrich’s support may have peaked before the primary on Tuesday. His projection is that Gingrich still has a 2-point lead and a 60 percent chance of victory. But Silver concludes that Romney has re-emerged as the slight favorite in Florida instead. 

Quotable

“For the Republican Party, the stakes could not be greater. Just eight years after the parity’s successful effort to woo Hispanic voters in 2004, this community has drifted away. Although Democrats hold the edge, Republicans have an opportunity.”—Jeb Bush, neutral in the primaries, claims Hispanic voters will represent the margin of victory.

69