Obama vs. Guiliani?

28 February 2007 |permalink | email article

Any national presidential poll taken eleven months before the Iowa caucuses is only a mere snapshot.

But a new Zogby International telephone survey including 1,078 likely Democrat and Republican voters, with an overall margin of error of +/- 3 points, makes for good conversation.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads with 33%, up 4% from the last Zogby survey in January. But Barack Obama, then 14%, has surged in the past six weeks to 25%. The survey (Feb. 22-24) is the first since the angry public spat between the two campaigns over Hollywood fund-raising and the first Clinton administration.

John Edwards is a distant third at 12%.

In terms of how firm support is for the candidates overall, Clinton’s is a bit weaker than that of Obama. Edwards has the strongest-minded backers.

Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani has extended his lead over John McCain, now ahead by 29% to 20%. This compares with his 21% to 17% edge in January. Mitt Romney placed a distant third, although among “very conservative” voters he wins 23%, compared to 22% for Newt Gingrich.

Guiliani led in virtually every age bracket, with McCain within the 3% margin of error only among those age 50-64.

The real news is Obama’s early general election strength.

Obama beats Guiliani by 6%, McCain by 4% and Romney by 22%. Guiliani beats Clinton by 7% and Edwards by 6%. McCain beats Clinton by 8% and Edwards by 9%. Clinton beats only Romney by 10%.

My two-cents worth:

a) Clinton has the money but is slowly losing altitude.
b) Obama is drawing crowds not seen since JFK.
c)  Edwards must win in Iowa to survive.
d) Guiliani is ahead only because of 9/11.
e) McCain seems lost but could come back.
f)  Romney flip-flops lose him Christian conservatives.
g) Gingrich may be the surprise from the right.

711