Ohio Vote: Preview of 2012 Campaign?

08 November 2011 |permalink | email article

POLLING suggests Ohio Democrats and public employee unions likely will score a major victory Tuesday in the referendum on Republican Gov. John Kasich’s anti-public union bill, SB-5.

Politico cited a new Public Policy Polling survey showing that only 36% of Ohioans will vote to support the law, while a decisive 59% oppose the bill and will vote to repeal it. Kasich’s own approval mirrors these numbers, with only 33% approval and 57% disapproval. The ultra-conservative former congressman was elected in the 2010 Republican wave, defeating incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland by a 49%-47% margin. However, when asked if they could vote again, the respondents in this poll chose Strickland by a 55%-37% margin.

While Democrats supported repeal by an 86-10 margin, there was a stunning division within Republican ranks—30% are planning to vote down Kasich’s signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents opposed it by a 54/39 spread as well. Opponents needed a threshold of 231,150 signatures—but organizers fired an opening political salvo by collecting four times as many, broadening the base for the actual campaign. Ohio was one of many states where Republicans took over state government in 2010, and proceeded to pass comprehensive legislation which shamefully stripped away collective bargaining rights for public employee unions. Democrats were able to use the state referendum process to put the law directly on the ballot. Tuesday’s expected result sets up a crucial 2012 presidential battle in Ohio, a major swing state and suggests a strong Democratic resurgence.   

Red Flag Warnings

A new USA Today/Gallup Poll has bad news for frontrunners Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, but the Pizza Man appears set for a tumble. Romney’s support has barely budged, never scoring higher than 24%. His 21% standing is 2 statistically insignificant points above where he stood in the first Gallup poll in September 2010.

Parsing Ron Paul

On two consecutive Sunday mornings the libertarian Texas congressman and Republican presidential candidate has refused to rule out a third-party campaign. On CNN Oct. 30 he said he had no intention of such a run but left the door open. On Fox News Sunday yesterday he said he would probably not support another candidate who won the GOP nomination. Paul again used the “no intention” phrase but why not just say no if he really means it?

Quotable

“I do believe the comparison with Twain is legitimate. Andy was an original voice, an original American,” Jeff Fager, the executive producer of “60 Minutes.” Steve Kroft, another colleague on the show, added, “I would say Mark Twain or Will Rogers. He was in a way a philosopher.” 

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