Predicting President 44 Premature

05 August 2008 |permalink | email article

BUZZ by the media and the political commentariat about whether Obama or McCain will win based on national polls during the Dog Days of August means little or nothing now.

For the record the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls has Obama ahead nationally by 2.3%. In the first four days of August Gallup had Obama up by 3%, while Rasmussen and Zogby had McCain leading by 1%.

In terms of the 11 battleground states Obama, with two exceptions, narrowly leads in nine of them while McCain is slightly ahead in two.

The real test about how the election may turn out, even after both party conventions are over in terms of the polls, will not come until after the first presidential debate in late September.

But one new national poll just released by the Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University is significant in terms of where a key group is headed.

Obama holds 2 to 1 edge over McCain among the nation’s low-wage workers although many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system.

Obama has overwhelming support from African Americans and Hispanics, two traditional Democratic constituencies.

Among white workers, targeted by both parties as a key to the November election, Obama leads McCain by 10%, and is seen as the more empathetic candidate.

His advisers have said for months that they believe McCain can win a significant share of those voters because Obama struggled in the primaries for support from white workers. The survey suggests it will be difficult for McCain to increase his appeal.

Quote of the Day

“We don’t have plans to call Congress into session – it won’t make a difference if Democratic leaders are unwilling to bring up a bill on an up-and-down vote.” – White House spokesman Tony Fratto throwing cold water on a House Republican stunt that it convene a special session of Congress on energy.

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