Reagan’s first term offers Obama ‘12 path

02 November 2010 |permalink | email article

As Tom Brokaw noted on “Meet the Press” there are lessons and inspiration that President Obama can learn from Ronald Reagan’s first term in office. The argument goes that if the Gipper could survive a deep recession, low approval ratings and an adverse midterm election in his first two years in office and win reelection two years later, Obama can do the same.

The Washington Post reported in August that both succeeded unpopular presidents of the opposite party, offered big and bold plans – Reagan with massive tax cuts, Obama with a massive stimulus package and national health care – that set the nation in a new direction.

Both presidents were forced by events before their elections to deal with economies in serious trouble. In their first two years in office the unemployment rate rose sharply – under Reagan, the rate hit 10.8 percent by November 1982 – and both saw their approval ratings decline as the numbers of jobless grew. 

Republicans suffered significant losses in the House in Reagan’s first term, giving the Democrats an even larger majority, and Democrats today are bracing themselves for a similarly terrible night.

Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University and author of “The Disappearing Center,” told The Post the key thing about a midterm election is that it indicates nothing about future elections, whether the next presidential election or the next congressional election.

The economy rebounded during Reagan’s third and fourth years in office, and the unemployment rate declined, although not spectacularly. The U.S. economy experienced a surge in 1983 and 1984, setting the stage for Reagan’s “Morning in America” ads and a huge reelection victory.

Obama’s major challenge, whatever the outcome of the midterms, is what happens to the economy afterward. Comparisons with Reagan are discouraging for the current president in terms of growth rates which The Congressional Budget Office has said “is likely to be slower than usual” compared with past recessions. But the Obama team has some time to adapt before 2012. “It’s only what’s happening to the economy in the year of the election that matters,” Abramowitz added.

Commentary

Don’t expect the extremism and violence in our politics to subside magically after Election Day – no matter what the results. If Tea Party candidates triumph, they’ll be emboldened. If they lose, the anger and bitterness will grow. The only development that can change this equation is a decisive rescue from our prolonged economic crisis. Not for the first time in history – and not just American history – fear itself is at the root of a rapid outbreak of populist rage against government, minorities and conspiratorial “elites.” So far neither party has offered a comprehensive antidote to our economic pain. – Frank Rich, in the New York Times

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