Senate: GOP Odds Slim; Dems’ Pacific Firewall

23 September 2010 |permalink | email article

The New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight forecasting model on the first day of Autumn assigns Republicans an 18 percent chance of emerging with at least 51 Senate seats following the November 2 elections, up from 15 percent last week. Nate Silver’s Political Calculus shows the GOP gaining ground in one pivotal race, Wisconsin - and putting another Senate race, in West Virginia, squarely in play.

Were it just for these two states, Republican chances of taking over the Senate – which suffered in last week’s forecast because of Christine O’Donnell’s win in Delaware – would have improved fairly significantly.

But the model suggests that Democrats have made gains in another key state, California, which cuts against some equity the Republicans might have gained. In four polls released since last week’s forecast, all show material gains for Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer who is now a 78 percent favorite to prevail in California, up from 58 percent last week. In Washington, another poll shows the incumbent, Patty Murray, leading and a 3-to-1 favorite over the Republican, Dino Rossi.

On the Trail

First Lady Michelle Obama, dubbed by the President as “the closer” during the 2008 campaign, will make a series of state appearances for Democratic candidates in mid-October, raising money for Murray in Washington the week of Oct. 25, with the final three days in California to support Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Boxer and SF D.A. Kamala Harris for AG …..NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg soon heads to the Golden State in his private jet to campaign for fellow billionaire Meg Whitman, hoping to enhance Whitman’s reputation as a political moderate. A lifelong Democrat before running as a Republican, Bloomberg has recast himself as an independent endorsing candidates in both parties.

Quotable

“I worship the Prince of Peace. But I think nowadays faith is being used by Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin and others as a political ploy.” – Former President Jimmy Carter responding to columnist Maureen Dowd’s question about the strange evangelistic feel of the recent Beck-Palin rally on the Mall.

“Voting is very sacred thing for us. Some of us have seen comrades killed in action. I seriously question Ms. Whitman as to why it took her 20 years to register to vote in California.” – Mark Starr, an Army veteran of the Gulf War and Iraq.

 

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