State Of The Union Preview

30 January 2005 |permalink | email article

President Bush delivers his State of the Union Address on Wednesday. He will say the nation is still at war, thank Congress for the financial support to wage it, declare the Iraq election a success, and reprise his freedom and liberty mantra. He will outline major goals of his second-term domestic agenda, the centerpiece being a major restructuring of Social Security. He aced Congress in his first term and ended without a major defeat. Despite a mien of divine guidance, he’s being cautioned about the pitfalls that come with a second term: FDR failed in his bid to pack the Supreme Court; Eisenhower did not grasp that the U.S. had fallen behind in the space race; Nixon resigned over Watergate; and Clinton was impeached over the Lewinsky scandal.

Will W. learn from history? Sure to a fault and never facing another election, he’s calling for bolder and more risky legislation than any recent Republican president. But for GOP House members 2006 is an election year and there is palpable resistance by many to the magnitude of the president’s agenda. Some are more focused on immigration, intelligence reform and legislative caps on civil damage awards. That W. made a quick flight to the posh Greenbrier resort in the Alleghenies just prior to the weekend, accompanied by consigliere Karl Rove and several senior high-ranking officials, to reassure restive congressional Republicans and rally them around his State of the Union address is compelling. As The Washington Post reported, Republican angst about the president’s plans have put “him in the undesirable position of having to sell himself to his own party when he could be focusing on Democrats and independents.” W. made brief public remarks to the lawmakers before he engaged in a closed-door question and answer session with lawmakers as Capitol Police stood guard.

I found an Associated Press dispatch about two leaked comments made after the secret session about Social Security revealing. W. gratuitously invoked his twin 22-year-old daughters as examples of the need to pass the legislation. By the time they reach retirement age, the president was quoted as saying, the system will be bankrupt unless changes are made. A lobbying Rove said that no Republican incumbent member of Congress had lost a race for re-election in the past six years on the basis of Social Security. Say again? Social Security has not been a white-hot campaign issue until this past year.

W. takes his dog-and-pony crusade to North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, Arkansas and Florida late this week. Why Florida? Is it really conceivable that its high concentration of senior citizens, most of whom already get Social Security, will be supportive? Democrats see early public opinion in their favor. They await details of the president’s proposal sometime in March before they respond. What’s clear is real time is not on the GOP’s side.

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