The Big Lull

04 July 2008 |permalink | email article

The July Fourth holiday coincides with the beginning of a two-month lull in the presidential race.

The Olympics in China early in August are followed by the Democratic convention in Denver ending August 28 and the Republican one on September 4 in St. Paul.

Between now and Sept. 5, when the sprint toward the November 4 finish line begins, neither Obama nor McCain can win the election. Both can lose it by poor positioning in the next two months.

John Kerry’s downfall began in 2004 when he failed to aggressively respond quickly to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign. Vigorously counterattacking on ‘Sixty Minutes’ could have made a difference. (Remember Bill and Hillary Clinton in 1992?)

NBC News’ analysis projects different goals for the two candidates over the next two months.

McCain needs a low single digit race by September 5.

Obama’s goal is more challenging: 1) begin erasing character doubts about himself, 2) bankrupt McCain financially in lean red states, and 3) building not only a national lead but double-digit leads in as many states as he can.

Quotes of the Day

* “Here’s what he likes to do on weekends. He sits on the porch in front of the house, looking for out-of-state license plates.” – David Letterman, on Politico’s scoop about Senator McCain not working weekends.

* “Instead of refighting the Vietnam War while we’re still fighting the Iraq war, the candidates can figure out how to feed the world, find enough fuel for everyone, and, oh, yeah, catch that bin Laden fiend who’s running around free.” – NYT columnist Maureen Dowd on the Wes Clark-John McCain sideshow. 

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