Electoral Vote Trend

10 July 2008 |permalink | email article

NBC’s electoral map in early June, right after the Democratic primary season, had John McCain and Barack Obama tied – each with 200 electoral votes when adding up their base and lean states.

But the network’s July map shows Obama edging ahead to a 210-189 lead over McCain, with 139 electoral votes in a toss-up column. Most of the changes moved in Obama’s direction.

Illinois emerges as a key state because it represents Obama’s strength in the region he represents. He’s out-performing in every state that touches Illinois except Kentucky.

Obama is edging ahead in some states in the agricultural Midwest which have been close in 2000 and 2004. The West is his next best pickup region.

McCain is not fairing as well in his home region. His best battleground region is the Rust Belt/industrial Midwest – regions that could become must-wins if he starts losing ground the agricultural Midwest and possibly the West.

Quotes of the Day

* “Too many people believed you have to be for or against the Iranians. Let’s get serious. Eighty million people live there, and everyone’s an individual. The idea that they’re only one way or another is nonsense.” – Admiral William Fallon, who resigned in March as head of the U.S. Central Command, to Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker. Late last year Fallon told the Financial Times that the “real objective” of U.S, policy was to change the Iranians’ behavior, and “that attacking them as a means of getting to that spot strikes me as not being the first choice.”

* Maybe that’s a way to kill them.” – John McCain, laughing and saying it was a joke in replying to a question about the increase in U.S. exports to Iran during the Bush Administration, with the largest export being cigarettes. Remember “Bomb, Bomb Iran?”

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