Joe Scott 3: The Body Politic

Tale of Two Cities

22 December 2005 |permalink | email article

A state Assembly race in San Francisco normally attracts zero interest beyond the city limits. But the June primary between Supervisor and moderate Democrat Fiona Ma against Golden Gate Bridge Highway and Transportation District member and the more progressive Democrat Janet Reilly is different.

Not only is it one of the most closely watched Assembly races in years but the winner of the primary in the heavily Democratic 12th District is virtually assured of replacing Assemblyman Leland Yee, a state Senate candidate. The battle between Ma and Reilly, each well funded, has also drawn attention in Washington and Los Angeles.

Sen. John Kerry kicked off Reillyís campaign with a major San Francisco fundraiser. Former Assembly Speakers Leo McCarthy and Antonio Villaraigosa have also endorsed her, while Ma is a protÈgÈ of legendary former Senate President Pro Tem John Burton.

Reilly is married to Clint Reilly, once a major political consultant who managed Richard Riordanís winning 1993 L.A. mayoral campaign and is now a San Francisco real estate magnate. The couple held two fundraisers in the city for Villaraigosa during his 2005 campaign for L.A. mayor.

Last month, the new mayor reciprocated by appearing at a fundraiser for Janet Reilly at Lucyís El Adobe CafÈ in Hollywood, for two generations a political-cultural salon and longtime hangout for Jerry Brown and major Democratic politicians, where he praised her stands on health and environmental issues. Incredibly, the ubiquitous Villaraigosa, whoís more visible than any mayor in memory since taking office in July, had never before been to the popular Mexican restaurant.

Owner Lucy Casado, who backed incumbent Mayor Jim Hahn, a longtime patron, warmly welcomed Villaraigosa at the Reilly event and showed him the eastern wall of the main dining room covered with inscribed photos of some of the most famous names in American politics and pop culture.

As the L.A. Independentís Tony Castro reported, the politically ambitious mayor said three times,ì I want my picture on that wall.î Casado has not yet received a photo.
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Polls, W. and Iraq

21 December 2005 |permalink | email article

Polls are snapshots of a moment in time and fleeting. New data on President Bush vis-a-vis Iraq is revealing.

The good news for Bush is a Washington Post-ABC News Poll taken between last Thursday and Sunday showing his overall approval rating at 47%, up from 39%, with 52% negative. His approval on Iraq jumped 10 points to 46%. On fighting terrorism it stood at 56%, up 8 points from November.

The huge turnout in last weekís elections in Iraq, and the White House PR offensive - five speeches and a news conference in 19 days - has sharply jump started support for Bush among his core supporters. But movement among Democrats, independents and moderates has been negligible. And 60% of those sampled still say they do not believe Bush has adequately explained why the U.S. is in Iraq and about the same percentage said the administration lacks a clear plan to succeed.

In his Monday news conference, the president spoke about millions of Iraqis ìlooking forward to the future with hope and optimism.î In a televised address Sunday night he referenced an ABC News Poll conducted with Time and several news organizations just before the election indicating 7 in 10 Iraqis ìsay their lives are going well.î

The president conveniently left out key poll data about Iraqi public opinion, which indicates deep resentment with the occupation despite all the Bush-Cheney happy talk about freedom and democracy: Just 46% said their country was better off than before the war; half said it was wrong for the U.S. to invade in 2003. Two-thirds said they opposed the continued presence of U.S. troops, and almost half said they would like to see U.S. forces leave soon.

Preliminary election returns yesterday suggest a strong victory for a coalition of Iranian-backed Shiite religious parties. Sunni and secular political parties claim the national election was rigged, demand a new vote, hint at new insurgent violence and threaten to both sabotage and delay the formation of a new government.

The New York Timesí conservative columnist David Brooks correctly worries that to avoid a civil war ìit is essential that the U.S. remain in Iraq until we are sure the central government is strong.î But on this first day of winter, an omninous moment is approaching,

If the Sunni Arabs are shut out of power the U.S. occupation could end up with a pro-Iranian, theocratic government with American troops trapped in a quagmire. If so, forget the polls because Bush and his "strategy for victory" will be toast.
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Why Oversight Matters

20 December 2005 |permalink | email article

Quote of the day:

ìI do not think you can argue today that Congress is a coequal branch of government: it is not. It has basically lost the war-making power.î

Lee H. Hamilton, former Democratic congressman from Indiana and vice-chairman of the 9/11 commission.